We are now six days away from MLB Opening Night (March 30th). It's called Opening Night even though the season has technically already been opened, as the Dodgers swept the Diamondbacks in a two game series in Australia. This makes no sense to me, but they didn't ask me about it, so there's that. Each day leading up to Opening Night, I'll be releasing my divisional predictions for the upcoming year. I'll begin with the AL East, and end with the NL West on March 30th. Feel free to leave a comment with any agreements/disagreements, and also feel free to bring this back up at the end of the season when my picks have all been proven wrong. Hope everyone enjoys.
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox- Coming off a World Series title in Boston, expectations are rampant for this group. And why not? Even with Jacoby Ellsbury bolting to New York for a huge pay day, this group should be more than fine. The lineup is solid, the rotation is one of the best in baseball, and the bullpen should be sufficient. The main questions surrounding this group will be the production of new starters Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., as well as the health of aging players such as David Ortiz and AJ Pierzynski. If the Sox can stay healthy, look for them to take the AL East crown.
2. Tampa Bay Rays- The biggest obstacle to a Red Sox AL East championship repeat will be the Tampa Bay Rays. Their strength will be a strong rotation, led by David Price and Matt Moore. The bullpen was improved over the offseason, and the infield should be good defensively and anchor the middle of an above average lineup. The biggest question for this team will be how much production they get from the top of their lineup as they attempt to set up a strong middle of the order led by Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, and James Loney. If the Rays can indeed finish second in the AL East, they should be considered a favorite for a Wild Card game spot.
3. New York Yankees- One word should tell the story for the New York Yankees this year- health. If the Yankees can stay injury free (or at least not injury riddled), they will become a favorite to win not only the AL East, but possibly a World Series. Talent abounds on the roster, but most of it is aging, injury-prone talent. Free agent signees Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran should hold down the top three spots in the everyday lineup, but all three have injury history, along with just about every other player in the starting lineup. The starting rotation should be solid, but the bullpen could be a major issue. If the Yankees can keep the injuries to a minimum, they should compete, but since that is a Yankees-payroll-sized "if," they sit at third in my predictions and miss the playoffs for a second consecutive year.
4. Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles are definitely in consideration for "dark horse of the year," as they could make some noise in the AL East. They grabbed Nelson Cruz out of free agency right before training camp, which should bolster an already solid middle of the order which includes Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Cruz, and Matt Wieters. Manny Machado will provide immediate offense when he returns from the DL. The weakness on this squad will be pitching. The offseason addition of Ubaldo Jimenez will help, but the rest of the rotation and the bullpen remain weak. The offense will win their fair share of games, but playing 81 games in a hitter friendly park like Camden Yards won't be pretty for the O's staff. Although they have the talent and potential to make a run at the playoffs, I don't believe the pitching will provide enough help for them to seriously contend.
5. Toronto Blue Jays- The fact that I am projecting the Toronto Blue Jays to finish last in the division should send a major message about the AL East. This is not a bad team, they just happen to be stuck in the toughest division in baseball. There are questions about the health of Jose Reyes, but if he's able to take the field on Opening Day, he will lead a trio of very dangerous hitters that also includes Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. The rest of the order, however, is underwhelming. The rotation, led by knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, is solid, but not great. The bullpen is also mediocre. Once again, this is not a bad team, but they're not good either. And to win in a division like the AL East, you have to be a lot better than good.
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