Sunday, March 30, 2014

2014 NL Central Predictions

NL Central

(Note: My apologies for this being a day later than originally expected.)

1. St. Louis Cardinals- After a World Series appearance in 2013, the Cardinals will look to return this year, hoping for different results this time around. With nearly all key players returning, the Cardinals are in prime position to once again have the top record in the National League and possibly make a deep playoff run. The offense is more balanced than most in baseball, as the Cards have production from top to bottom in the batting order. Young infielder Matt Carpenter will bat leadoff, with Matt Holliday and slugging first baseman Matt Adams provide some pop in the middle of the order. The pitching staff is one of the best in the game, and is only matched by the Nationals in terms of top to bottom production. Adam Wainwright will be the ace of the staff as long as he's healthy, but all five starters are more than capable of producing at a high level. The Cardinals' bullpen never seems to have any big names, but always manages to get the job done anyway. Trevor Rosenthal will step into the closer's role this year, as 2013 closer Edward Mujica is now with the Red Sox. The Cardinals will have one of this most talented teams in baseball this year, and they shouldn't have much problem winning the NL Central and being very competitive in the playoffs.

2. Cincinnati Reds- The buzz in Cincinnati at the outset of this season surrounds rookie outfielder Billy Hamilton. Hamilton was called up to the big club in September last year and instantly electrified the game with his speed. He stole 13 bases in 13 games last year, as well as 9 in 18 games this spring. Hamilton will bat leadoff and attempt to set up RBI opportunities for sluggers Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, who combined for 54 home runs and 212 RBI's last year. The rotation will be led by Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, but the Reds are hoping third starter Tony Cingrani will be able to build on his solid 2013 campaign, where he started 18 games and had a 2.92 ERA. The bullpen should be very good, especially when hard-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman returns in late April from surgery resulting from being drilled in the head by a line drive in Spring Training. Meanwhile, the Reds will rely on guys like Sam LeCure and J.J. Hoover to anchor the pen. The Reds earned a Wild Card spot in 2013, and should be able to build on that experience this year as they attempt to return to the playoffs.

3. Milwaukee Brewers- The Brew Crew endured an awful 2013 without their superstar Ryan Braun, who was suspended after failing a test for performance enhancing drugs. Only two years removed from winning 96 games and the division, last year's Brewers won only 74 games and fell to fourth in the NL Central. Although being stuck below the Cardinals and Reds will most likely keep them out of the playoffs this year, Milwaukee should field a solid team and be much improved. Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura will provide a very speedy duo atop the order, followed by power hitters Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and underrated catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The rotation should be decent, but not elite. Yovani Gallardo is their number one guy, followed by Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza. Also watch out for fifth starter Wily Peralta, as he tries to redeem himself after a disappointing rookie season last year. The bullpen was not good in 2013, but with the top 3 relievers from last year's squad back this year, look for improvement in the pen. Milwaukee might still be a few pieces short of bring a contender, but they have some very nice building blocks for coming years and could find themselves back at the top in a year or two.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates- The Pirates were one of the league's best feel good stories of 2013, as they snapped a 21 year playoff drought by grabbing a Wild Card spot. Andrew McCutchen was awarded the National League MVP Award after a season in which he hit .317 with 21 long balls, 84 RBI's and 27 stolen bases. McCutchen should once again put up big numbers and be in the thick of the MVP race, but the loss of a few key players on last year's team, as well as the return of Ryan Braun to the Brewers, should keep Pittsburgh from making an impact in the playoffs in 2014. Starling Marte had a fantastic season last year, his first full year in the bigs, and will look to build on that success this year. McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez should provide plenty of pop in the middle of the order, but there doesn't figure to be much production behind them. The rotation shouldn't be bad, but likely won't be exceptional either. Francisco Liriano will be the Opening Day starter, but Gerrit Cole had a great year last year and many would argue that he is the ace of the staff. The bullpen is this team's strength, led by one of the league's most underrated closers, Jason Grilli. This team has the ability to make a push for a playoff spot, but with so many competitive teams in the division, the Pirates might be the ones left hanging come October.

5. Chicago Cubs- The Cubs are the only team in this division that would need a miracle to compete for a playoff spot. The Cardinals are the clear favorite to win the division, and the other three teams could conceivably make a run at the Wild Card. Chicago, however, is still a few years away from contention. Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, who is one of the top young shortstops in baseball, will lead a lineup that shouldn't be very good, but will probably still be the strength of the team. The rotation will be led by Jeff Samardzija, who has been involved in trade rumors and will most likely be dealt by the trade deadline in July. Edwin Jackson should also be able to provide solid outings. The bullpen is young and talented, but still not ready to produce in a big way at the Major League level. Jose Vera's had a bad year in 2013, but the Cubs will look for him to rebound and be counted on to close games. The Cubs have one of the best farm systems in baseball, including a foursome that's been dubbed by the front office as the "Core Four." However, with these players and others still developing in the minor leagues, it will still be a few years before the Cubs contend.

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