Sunday, March 30, 2014

2014 NL West Predictions

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers- On paper, the Dodgers look to have the best team in baseball. They enter this year with the highest payroll in baseball at just over 220 million dollars, which breaks the Yankees streak of 15 consecutive years with the MLB's biggest payroll. The Los Angeles lineup is stacked top to bottom. The top of the order will feature stars such as Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and 2013 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Yasiel Puig. Veterans Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Juan Uribe should provide nice production as well. The rotation is led by the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, but should be solid in all spots. Three out of the five starters had a 3.00 ERA or lower in 2013. The bullpen is the weakness of this team, even though it is above average. With setup men Brian Wilson and Chris Perez setting things up for closer Kenley Jansen, don't expect the Dodgers to lose many late leads. Although the NL West should be a solid division, look for the Dodgers to have no problem capturing the division title.

2. San Francisco Giants- The Giants won't be great this year and are a distant second to the Dodgers, but should be able to put together a good enough year to finish second in the NL West and compete for a Wild Card spot. Angel Pagan will play center field and bat leadoff, and he will be followed in the batting order by impressive power hitters Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Pablo Sandoval. The rotation should be very good, featuring Madison Bumgarner as the ace. Following him in the rotation will be Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and veteran Tim Hudson, who was signed as a free agent this past offseason after an ankle injury ended his season early last year. He comes into the season at one hundred percent, but his (and the entire rotation's) health is going to be a huge part of this team's success. The bullpen should be solid, but not great. Sergio Romo will have the role of closer. Although the Giants don't have nearly the talent that the Dodgers have, they have put together a team that should be able to compete at a high level.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks- Paul Goldschmidt emerged as a real star in the MLB last year as he hit .302 with 36 home runs, 125 RBI's, and 15 stolen bases in just his second full season in the majors, finishing in second place in the NL MVP voting. One key to Arizona's success is the ability of A.J. Pollock and Aaron Hill to get on base atop the order in order to set up RBI opportunities for Goldschmidt, Martin Prado, and Mark Trumbo, who joins the Diamondbacks after playing his first three big league seasons with the Angels. Although the top and middle of the order should be potent, the bottom of the order doesn't pack much of a bunch. The rotation was average at best, but that was before ace Patrick Corbin went down with an elbow ligament injury that will cause him to miss the entire year. His loss makes the rotation under par and ill force Wade Miley into the role of number one starter. The bullpen doesn't have any superstars, but it is solid top to bottom. The offense should be able to produce, but the rotation will have to outperform expectations in order for Arizona to compete for a Wild Card spot this year.

4. Colorado Rockies- I am tempted to place the Rockies higher than fourth, but the pitching just will not be enough in such a hitter-friendly ballpark. It is common knowledge among baseball fans that Coors Field in Denver is the most batter-friendly stadium in the MLB, mostly because the high altitude and thin air cause the ball to carry farther than it normally would. As a result, the Rockies have always been near the top of the league in offensive statistics, as well as near the bottom in pitching statistics. The lineup, as usual, will be solid. Former batting champ Michael Cuddyer will likely hit in the two slot and try to set the table for Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Justin Morneau. The rotation will be the issue this season in Colorado. Jorge De La Rosa will be the ace of the staff, but he has been surrounded by trade rumors and may not stay with the team for the entire year. Rex Brothers will lead the bullpen, especially until solid reliever Boone Logan returns from opening the season on the disabled list. The Rockies may be a dark horse contender in the NL West, but their lack of pitching will prevent them from making a real push at the playoffs.

5. San Diego Padres- The Padres have definitely improved from a few years ago when they were one of the worst teams in the league, but they NL West is simply too strong for them to make any noise this year. Everth Cabrera will be the shortstop and leadoff hitter, and he will be relied on to get on base and take advantage of his speed. Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko will be the power hitters in the lineup, usually batting third and fourth. The Padres don't have great hitters, but they are consistent from the top of the lineup to the bottom. The rotation and bullpen will be aided by Petco Park, known as an extreme pitcher's park. Andrew Cashner will be the ace of the staff and should put up a solid season, but behind him, the Padres don't have much talent in the rotation. The bullpen should be average, led by setup man Joaquin Benoit and closer Huston Street. Although the Padres shouldn't be bad this year, they don't have the pieces necessary to compete in a strong division like the NL West.

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